Western Australian WikiLeaks Party lead Senate candidate, Gerry Georgatos, who is also a statistical researcher along with being an investigative journalist, forecasts the Senate race.
In this year’s Federal Senate election, Australians have the opportunity to write a little bit of our national history.
In Victoria, Julian Assange is fighting for the sixth Senate spot. The first five seats will be shared by Labor and the Liberals. But the sixth seat is between Julian Assange and the Greens candidate, Janet Rice. The Greens and the Wikileaks have preferenced each other above the major parties, so it will ultimately come done to who between them gets a greater share of the primary vote.
Julian Assange is a world-famous dissident who has achieved more for the public record, and in the public interest, than all of the news media combined. On the basis of this achievement, we hoped the Greens would give full backing for Julian’s bid for the sixth spot. WikiLeaks exposures over the past six years have given considerable ammunition to environmental campaigns across the globe, and have forced greater accountability and transparency onto polluting industries in a host of cases from India to Africa and elsewhere. This is in addition to Assange’s achievements in bringing the US-led military-industrial complex to account on a range of issues that it is desperately trying to hide from the public.
I personally am working as hard as I can to have Julian elected in Victoria. In fact I’ve been working harder for Julian’s Victorian campaign than I have for our own Western Australian campaign where I am the WikiLeaks Party’s lead candidate.
Early polls suggested that Julian could potentially get as much as 27 per cent of the vote, but such polls are only as good as the sample they are based on. If people do vote for him on September 7 in such numbers then he will be elected to the Senate, and Australian public opinion will have written itself into the history books. But it is unlikely that anything like 27 per cent will be achieved as a primary vote. More likely Julian and the Victorian Greens candidate will be in a head to head competition for primary votes and whoever comes out best of the two in the primary vote will secure the sixth spot. The Greens have the advantage of being preferenced with the Labor overflow, but WikiLeaks also has some chance by getting the preference flow-on of smaller parties who will be eliminated because of inadequate primary vote counts and their votes passed on to the next available preference. But Wikileaks will only be an available preference in the flow-on if it secures enough of the primary vote to stay in the race.
That’s why I continue to give my energy to the Victorian campaign, because the WikiLeaks Party’s main chance of success in this Senate election will come from Julian Assange securing as many of the primary votes as possible.
In NSW, once again the sixth Senate spot is between WikiLeaks Kellie Tranter and former NSW Greens parliamentarian Cate Faehrmann. It appears to me Cate may just tip out Kellie, but Kellie and Dr Alison Broinowski are giving it everything they’ve got to make WikiLeaks heard and to make Australian history.
In WA, the Greens Senator Scott Ludlam is popular and his Senate seat has always been secure, despite the sad strategic statements put out by the Greens that they are on a “knife-edge” in WA. The knife-edge rhetoric and claims that my preferencing of David Wirrpanda above them will see “balance of power handed to Abbott” is simply a fallacy.
In the last two Senate elections, the WA Greens received nearly 11 per cent and 14 per cent respectively, just on primary votes. None of the small parties even come close. Any candidate that receives those sort of primary counts is secure. The Greens’ WA base is solid and at no less than 10 per cent, and that’s a fact, and the Senate draws a higher vote for the Greens than it does overall in the House of Representatives.
The Greens’ rhetoric on this is strategic and is intended to garner more votes nationally. In the Greens best-case scenario they could gain as many as three or four new Senators, from Victoria, NSW, ACT and Queensland.
For the Greens to increase their presence in the Senate nationally (from the 9 Greens currently sitting), would of course be a good thing in my book, but lashing out at the WikiLeaks Party, a new party of conscientious and hard-working independents who are campaigning without AEC funds, and who are promising to be a bona fide check and balance in the Senate without compromising their values, is a sad reflection of the realities of politicking.
Based on the numbers at the last election, there are only two vulnerable WA Federal Senate seats. One is the Liberal number 3 spot. To secure it again they will need 3 x 14.3 per cent, ie 43.2 per cent, but it is likely they will get this. As for Labor, in order to secure their second seat, held by Senator Louise Pratt, will require 28.6 per cent, and this one is the big variable. If there is a backlash vote against Labor, Louise may indeed just miss out. This is the only way that WikiLeaks can get in.
Scott, secure with the primary vote, will move to 5th position, and the battle for the last vacant spot, in the event that Louise drops out, will be between WikiLeaks and the Nationals. Neither are a threat to Scott, and it is disingenuous to claim otherwise. It is not the Greens battling the Nationals for the last spot, the battle is between WikiLeaks and the Nationals. There is mutual respect between David Wirripanda and myself for the work we do in the community, and we need more of this work. In the event that Labor holds its number 2 candidate, then David and I will finish up in either 7th or 8th spots and miss out.
The WikiLeaks Party needs primary votes so we can stand alongside Scott in the Senate.
History beckons. We are on the precipice of changing the Australian political landscape. Let us grab this chance while it is there. What WikiLeaks stands for – truth and accountability – is what I’ve put myself on the line for throughout my life, working for people in communities far and wide who have brought me to tears. We have the chance in this election to let the voices of the unheard be heard. Let’s not pass it up.